Albieri A , Angelini P, Soracase M, Dottori M, Antolini G, Bellini R, Carrieri M
Aedes albopictus, the Asian tiger mosquito, has become a prevalent pest in Italy, causing severe nuisance and posing a threat for transmission of arboviruses introduced by infected travelers. We propose a predictive model on the seasonal population density of Ae. albopictus in the Emilia-Romagna region based on ovitrap data and meteorological parameters. A Bayesian approach was employed to identify the best meteorological predictors of species trend, using the eggs collected monthly from 2010 to 2023 by the Emilia-Romagna regional monitoring network.
The findings show that the winter–spring period (January to May) plays a crucial role on the size of the first generation and the following seasonal dynamic. As an example we show the summer density population prediction for 2024.
The data collected confirmed the impact of climate parameters on the Ae. albopictus population’s seasonal trend.
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